CRIM 595 Final
Rebecca Arnold
20 July 2023
This project looks at harassment, vandalism/graffiti, assault, threats, civil disputes, stolen automobiles, and sexual assaults/rape calls with bus stops in Fairfax City, since covid began. For the purposes of this project the start of covid was defined as January 20, 2020, when the first confirmed case of covid in the U.S. occurred.
##
|
| | 0%
|
|=========== | 16%
|
|======================= | 33%
|
|================================== | 49%
|
|============================================= | 64%
|
|======================================================== | 81%
|
|==================================================================== | 97%
|
|======================================================================| 100%##
|
| | 0%
|
| | 1%
|
|= | 1%
|
|= | 2%
|
|== | 2%
|
|== | 3%
|
|=== | 4%
|
|=== | 5%
|
|===== | 7%
|
|===== | 8%
|
|====== | 8%
|
|====== | 9%
|
|======= | 9%
|
|======= | 10%
|
|======= | 11%
|
|======== | 11%
|
|======== | 12%
|
|========= | 12%
|
|========= | 13%
|
|========= | 14%
|
|========== | 14%
|
|========== | 15%
|
|=========== | 15%
|
|=========== | 16%
|
|============ | 16%
|
|============ | 17%
|
|============ | 18%
|
|============= | 18%
|
|============= | 19%
|
|============== | 19%
|
|============== | 20%
|
|============== | 21%
|
|=============== | 21%
|
|=============== | 22%
|
|================ | 22%
|
|================ | 23%
|
|================= | 24%
|
|================= | 25%
|
|================== | 26%
|
|=================== | 27%
|
|=================== | 28%
|
|==================== | 28%
|
|==================== | 29%
|
|===================== | 29%
|
|===================== | 30%
|
|====================== | 31%
|
|======================= | 32%
|
|======================= | 33%
|
|======================== | 34%
|
|======================== | 35%
|
|========================= | 36%
|
|========================== | 37%
|
|========================== | 38%
|
|=========================== | 38%
|
|=========================== | 39%
|
|============================ | 39%
|
|============================ | 40%
|
|============================ | 41%
|
|============================= | 41%
|
|============================= | 42%
|
|============================== | 43%
|
|=============================== | 44%
|
|=============================== | 45%
|
|================================ | 45%
|
|================================ | 46%
|
|================================= | 47%
|
|================================== | 49%
|
|=================================== | 49%
|
|=================================== | 50%
|
|=================================== | 51%
|
|==================================== | 51%
|
|==================================== | 52%
|
|===================================== | 52%
|
|===================================== | 53%
|
|====================================== | 54%
|
|====================================== | 55%
|
|======================================= | 55%
|
|======================================= | 56%
|
|======================================== | 57%
|
|======================================== | 58%
|
|========================================= | 58%
|
|========================================== | 59%
|
|========================================== | 60%
|
|========================================== | 61%
|
|=========================================== | 61%
|
|=========================================== | 62%
|
|============================================ | 62%
|
|============================================ | 63%
|
|============================================= | 64%
|
|============================================= | 65%
|
|============================================== | 65%
|
|============================================== | 66%
|
|=============================================== | 66%
|
|=============================================== | 67%
|
|=============================================== | 68%
|
|================================================ | 68%
|
|================================================ | 69%
|
|================================================= | 70%
|
|================================================= | 71%
|
|================================================== | 71%
|
|================================================== | 72%
|
|=================================================== | 72%
|
|=================================================== | 73%
|
|=================================================== | 74%
|
|==================================================== | 74%
|
|===================================================== | 76%
|
|====================================================== | 76%
|
|====================================================== | 77%
|
|====================================================== | 78%
|
|======================================================= | 78%
|
|======================================================= | 79%
|
|======================================================== | 79%
|
|======================================================== | 80%
|
|========================================================= | 81%
|
|========================================================= | 82%
|
|========================================================== | 82%
|
|========================================================== | 83%
|
|========================================================== | 84%
|
|=========================================================== | 84%
|
|=========================================================== | 85%
|
|============================================================ | 85%
|
|============================================================ | 86%
|
|============================================================= | 86%
|
|============================================================= | 87%
|
|============================================================= | 88%
|
|============================================================== | 88%
|
|============================================================== | 89%
|
|=============================================================== | 89%
|
|=============================================================== | 90%
|
|================================================================ | 92%
|
|================================================================= | 92%
|
|================================================================= | 93%
|
|================================================================= | 94%
|
|================================================================== | 94%
|
|================================================================== | 95%
|
|=================================================================== | 96%
|
|==================================================================== | 97%
|
|==================================================================== | 98%
|
|===================================================================== | 98%
|
|===================================================================== | 99%
|
|======================================================================| 99%
|
|======================================================================| 100%Visual 1
This graph indicates hotspots for calls that occur within 150 meters of
a bus stop.
Visual 2
Visual 3
## Warning: sf layer has inconsistent datum (+proj=longlat +datum=NAD83 +no_defs).
## Need '+proj=longlat +datum=WGS84'Visual 4
Visual 5
Analysis
Based on the following graphs, the most frequent type of call to occur near bus stops is disorderly conduct followed by civil disputes, vandalism, and threats. The call type that is least likely to occur around bus stops is sexual assaults and rapes, this can be seen in the table below. The table below shows the type of call, the count of call, and the percentage that the call makes up for calls from the selected call types. Disorderly conduct calls frequently occur at locations where threats, stolen automobile, or other disorderly calls occur.
| type | count | geometry | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSAULT | 351 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28565 38.8… | 10.05 |
| CIVIL DISPUTE | 534 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28565 38.8… | 15.30 |
| DISORDERLY | 1397 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.286 38.862… | 40.02 |
| SEXUAL ASSAULT/RAPE | 83 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28103 38.8… | 2.38 |
| STOLEN AUTO | 197 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28224 38.8… | 5.64 |
| THREATS | 441 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28562 38.8… | 12.63 |
| VANDALISM/GRAFFITI | 488 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28565 38.8… | 13.98 |
For the remainder of 2023, sexual assaults/rape and stolen automobile calls will account for a very small percentage of bus stops calls, because these calls account for the smallest percentage of calls near bus stops. In the rest of 2023 it can be expected that the most frequent call to occur at bus stops are disorderly calls because they account for the highest percentage of calls from the selected call type. Civil disputes, vandalism, and threats will make up a similar percentage of calls at bus stops for the rest of 2023, with these percentages being lower than the disorderly calls.
Based on visual 2, there are two hotspots almost every call type being analyzed has. The first and biggest of the two hotspots occurs near Main Street and the Old Town Square, with every call type having a hotspot near this area, disorderly has the largest hotspot, and sexual assualts and rapes have the smallest hotspot at this location. The second hotspot that every call type has occurs in the Northeast section of Fairfax City by the bus stops located around Arlington Blvd, disorderly has the largest hotspot at this location, and sexual assaults and rapes have the smallest hotspot. As bus stops move further from businesses and closer to neighborhoods, the hotspots get smaller until they become cold spots. There is a smaller hotspot located Jermantown Road and Fairfax Blvd in the western section of Fairfax City, disorderly has the largest hotspot in this location while sexual assualts/rape calls and stolen automobile calls have the smallest hotspot. Based on visual 1 stops around major intersections receive more calls than other stops, most likely due to the number of people that visit these areas.
The biggest hotspots will remain around main street and the old town square, and the Northeast bus stops around Arlington Blvd. At these location it should be expected that disorderly occurs the most, followed by vandalism. In addition, the smaller hotspot located around Jermantown Road and Fairfax Blvd will have less stolen automobile calls and sexual assaults/rapes compared to the other hotspots that will continue to experience calls around bus stops. As stops move away from businesses and closer to neighborhoods the number of calls that these stops experience decrease, and this pattern should continue throughout the rest of 2023. Assuming there are no major road changes, the stops around major intersections where highly used roads meet will experience more calls than other stops throughout 2023 because more people use these stops.
Based on visual 4, calls near bus stops occur evenly through out the week, with no day of the week having significantly higher crime rates than another. Starting at hour 9, calls start to increase with the largest number of calls occurring between hour 12 to 15 across most days. At hour 20 the number of total calls being made starts to decrease. Vandalism, civil disputes, threats, and assaults tend to follow this same pattern for what time of day calls increase. However, disorderly calls start to increase around hour 17 then decrease around hour 0, showing that these calls occur mostly during the night hours. Sunday has the least number of calls around bus stops, possibly due to the low number of people using bus stops on the weekend because they don’t have to commute to and from work. The table below show what days of the week have the most number of calls near bus stops and the percentage of calls that occur on the day. Based on this table most days have similar call numbers falling within a 150 call difference, with Friday and Tuesday having the highest number.
| dow | count | geometry | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday | 578 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.2824 38.86… | 16.56 |
| Monday | 428 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28565 38.8… | 12.26 |
| Saturday | 459 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28539 38.8… | 13.15 |
| Sunday | 397 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28565 38.8… | 11.37 |
| Thursday | 521 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.286 38.862… | 14.92 |
| Tuesday | 561 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28565 38.8… | 16.07 |
| Wednesday | 547 | MULTIPOINT ((-77.28565 38.8… | 15.67 |
Based on this for the remainder of 2023 there should be no day that has significantly more calls near bus stops as they all make up a similar percentage for what day calls are being made. However, Sundays and Saturdays should have the least number calls because they have had the least number of calls compared to other days of the week. Disorderly calls should occur mostly in the night hours between hour 17 and 0 for the remainder of 2023, because it is when these calls occur the most. However, the other call types being analyzed should occur mostly between hour 12 to 15 when more people are out for the remainder of 2023. Disorderly, civil dispute, vandalism, and threat calls should be expected to occur at more hours of the day than the other types of calls because they have less hours of the day where no calls for that type occurred.